The customer habits you build in a ‘Goldilocks’ market set the tone for what comes next

Market conditions are 'just right', but there are factors suggesting that this may not last long.

It's Friday night after a brutal week, and I'm barely through the door when my daughter reads the room and shouts “pizza party!”. The loungeroom is transformed into a picnic site complete with cuddlies and a mermaid tail sleeping bag, and for the first time all evening everyone is calm. This is a time I need the right option to fit the occasion. 

This little anecdote highlights the importance of the Belly and the Brain in terms of decision making. The brain wants more from the meal – a sense of calm, convenience and joy. A memory attached to the moment. The belly wants feeding and doesn't care about the other emotional elements closely linked to the decision. 

The big question for Australian QSR operators to ask themselves today is whether you are satisfying these two primal needs, especially with customers facing a tangible cost of living squeeze. 

Eating and drinking out is growing at 8.5% year on year, the fastest of any consumer spending category (ABS, May 2026). At the same time, 70% of Australians say they're being more careful with money (YouGov Profiles, 2026). 
Clearly, then it’s the big ticket items like overseas holidays, renovations and new cars which are being cut or deferred at the moment. And, like a dammed up river, there’s a pent-up spending energy which is flowing to small moments of relief, which is exactly where QSR lives. 

Our sector is in something of a Goldilocks Zone right now where conditions are just right, but there are some factors combining to suggest it may not last too long, which is why it is essential to prepare for what comes next, now. 

Those factors are: 

• Persistent high interest rates and a slowing economy suggesting consumer spending will tighten further;
• A projected 1,700 new QSR restaurants are set to open in the next five years, with those new entrants tipped to capture around half of all takeaway growth to 2030 (Jarden, 2026). 

Some will look at these factors and assume they should stop investing in brand advertising and instead focus on snap sales and deals. But what we are seeing is that those who actually continue to invest in creating a seamless experience and putting their brand out there are getting the playbook right. 

It doesn’t need to be investing in lots of new locations - with estimates of between $1.7m and $2m (Jarden, April 2026) to open a new location that is a massive commitment for anyone - or big above-the-line brand campaigns to get that salience. There are some emerging behaviours which QSR marketers would be well advised to investigate and invest in before everyone gets onto them. 

One came up for me recently when I was interviewing a Gen Z candidate for a job. He was explaining how he finds restaurants when he moves to a new neighbourhood, revealing his first instinct wasn't only to search Google or scroll Instagram, but also to browse food delivery apps as part of his research.

He was using a delivery platform the way a previous generation used a street directory, except with real-time availability and user ratings from his new neighbours to give him a steer on where the best ramen actually was. 

This was a job interview, so I did wonder if he was just saying that to impress me. But when we went and validated that behaviour at scale, the numbers genuinely surprised us. 

Gen Z are 3x more likely than the general population to use our app to discover where to dine in person (Uber x GWI, 2026). The digital shelf, in other words, has evolved into a new shop front. 

It’s a different kind of behaviour which provides a new opportunity for a QSR brand. Our data shows 96% of consumers start by browsing the platform, and 62% are browsing when they're not yet ready to order.

I'm calling this calorie window shopping. 

These people aren't in a rush, and they are undecided, which means they are highly open to influence, so brands with good visibility during that phase are building something more durable than awareness - familiarity. In an uncertain economy and increasingly noisy market, familiarity is a currency that converts. 

When the decision moment finally arrives, it happens fast - 72% of delivery decisions happen within an hour. And the persuasion factor is real, with 1 in 2 people changing what they were going to order because of something they saw on the platform (Uber Path to Purchase, 2026).

And as any good marketer knows, the only thing better than a new customer is a repeat customer. Our internal data says a new customer who orders once has a 32% chance of coming back within 90 days, which rises to 56% after a second order and 71% after a third.

The habit curve is steep, and it tilts sharply once a customer reaches that third order, which means every bit of effort spent getting them there compounds in a way transactional discounting will never match. 

That habit isn’t something you can just switch on, and the brands doing this well aren't waiting for conditions to improve. They're using this period to build presence in the discovery phase, align their offers to the emotional moment a customer is actually in - the Friday night pizza party versus the lunchtime deal - and measure how quickly people come back rather than just how many orders they rack up. 

They've understood their best customers aren't hunting for the cheapest meal; they want the pizza party moment. The brands building that connection will be best placed over the coming years in the face of hundreds of new competitors and other challenges. 

They will win both the belly and the brain.