QSR sector set for 1% rebound after last year’s projected decline

The sector’s next phase hinges on balancing value and costs.

Despite ongoing cost pressures and cautious spending, confidence in the quick service restaurant (QSR) sector is showing signs of recovery, with Jarden’s latest survey forecasting 1% growth over the next year—a clear turnaround from last year’s projected decline.

This is attributed to consumer confidence and disposable income reaching their highest levels in years.

However, the sector’s next phase will hinge on how well brands balance value and rising costs.

Speaking at the QSR Media Conference & Awards 2025 Powered by Red Bull, Ben Gilbert, managing director and head of Australian equity research at Jarden, said consumers are in their strongest position in half a decade, supported by more than $5b in monthly savings and the highest confidence levels in three years.

“Consumers are in the best position they’ve been in over five years,” Gilbert said. “Confidence has lifted, savings are strong, and disposable income growth is the highest we’ve seen in a long time—but spending hasn’t fully caught up yet.”

Gilbert noted that whilst spending is ticking up, growth remains modest. “We’re still seeing single-digit retail growth,” he said. “What we need now is the shift from saving for a rainy day to actually spending again.”

He added that the Reserve Bank’s pause on further rate cuts and lingering service-sector inflation are tempering expectations. Markets are no longer pricing in more cuts this year, though a couple are expected in 2026.

From a QSR standpoint, Gilbert said eating-out trends are rebounding faster than expected, even surpassing grocery spending as consumers return to restaurants post-COVID.

Still, value remains the key theme. “People are buying fewer items, but they’re still seeking value—and value doesn’t just mean cheap,” Gilbert said. “It’s about service, quality, range, and experience.”

According to Jarden’s survey data, two-thirds of QSR operators plan to raise prices in the next 12 months, up from last year, even as profit margins face continued pressure from rising wages and rent.

Competition is also heating up. “There are very ambitious expansion plans out there,” Gilbert said. “We’re seeing operators take on sites they might have avoided before.”

Gilbert said Mexican cuisine is expected to lead growth, followed by pizza, citing strong performance and expansion from brands like Guzman y Gomez and Domino’s.