Foodservice growth shifts from transactions to relevance as meal occasions fragment
Deal-led visits account for around 40% of QSR occasions.
Restaurant operators will need to rethink growth strategies as consumers increasingly build meals across restaurants, supermarkets, delivery platforms, and home preparation, making relevance across the wider food ecosystem critical to winning future occasions.
Cost-of-living pressures are reshaping foodservice behaviour, with consumers becoming more deliberate about where and how they spend. Deal-led visits now account for around 40% of QSR occasions, whilst bundle meals have grown from 19% of visits in 2019 to 27% in 2026, according to data from Circana.
Digital ordering is also becoming a core part of the channel mix, with operators increasingly competing across multiple access points rather than relying only on in-store visits.
Roxanne Uy, senior manager at Circana, called this trend a ‘mixed-meal occasion,’ where consumers fluidly combine restaurants, supermarkets, delivery, and home preparation to create a single meal solution.
“For example, a family might buy a supermarket roast chicken and pair it with vegetables or a salad prepared at home. Another consumer may order a protein item through a delivery platform whilst preparing the rest of the meal from scratch,” Uy told QSR Media in emailed responses to questions.
Uy said quick-service restaurants are no longer competing with another restaurant but need to earn a place within a broader meal occasion.
Cost-of-living pressures continue to drive this behaviour. Australian consumer confidence fell to 72 in mid-September, down 12.6 points from a year earlier, according to Roy Morgan.
Operators are also dealing with a convergence of cost pressures, from labour pressures to higher fuel and energy costs.
This means value perception must be protected at all times. Circana data shows that within QSR, traffic share of bundle meals grew from 19% in 2019 to 27% in 2026.
Leading brands have also broadened consumer access by leveraging partnerships with aggregators and supermarkets.
“Winning brands are focusing on operational discipline, speed of service, and menu choices that reduce friction for both staff and customers. In a high-cost environment, execution matters as much as innovation,” Uy said.
The strongest operators are consistently delivering on three things: value, convenience and trust, with top performers aligning across multiple dayparts rather than depending on a single occasion. Digital adoption, growth in off-premise occasions and consistent bundle meal participation are among the clearest signals of exceptional performance.
Looking ahead, Uy said value-led occasions will continue to outperform as consumers remain cautious with discretionary spending even if inflation moderates.
Digital and delivery will capture a growing share of traffic, pointing to mobile app growth, delivery traffic share and loyalty program penetration as the key indicators to watch.
Her third prediction is that health and functional choices will become increasingly important within QSR, with protein-based items, functional beverages and health-oriented menu claims gaining traction, particularly among younger consumers.
For brands planning growth over the next three to five years, Uy said the focus should shift from visit value to lifetime value. Gaining the loyalty of those under-25 consumers early as they form long-term habits, winning families through value bundles and reliable execution, and building relevance beyond the restaurant across supermarkets and delivery platforms will give brands an edge.
"The brands that win over the next five years will not necessarily be the cheapest. They will be the most relevant,” Uy said.
Roxanne Uy will speak at the QSR Media Conference & Awards 2026 on 12 October at the Sheraton Grand Sydney Hyde Park, Australia.
